This month, we’re breaking down the latest market stats and addressing one of the hottest topics right now: How will the post-election Trump era impact the real estate market? Let’s dive in!
November Market Snapshot
In the past 30 days, we’ve seen:
- 1,777 new listings – A slight decrease from last month, which is typical as the holidays approach. Expect inventory to pick back up around February.
- 1,900+ homes closed escrow.
- 1,496 homes went pending.
These numbers indicate a relatively balanced market. Despite concerns from some skeptics, we’re not seeing alarming signs of a downturn. Let’s put things into perspective with some historical data below.
What About Inventory?
One of the main concerns people have is rising inventory levels. It’s true that inventory has increased compared to the past 2 years. However, when we look back to 2014–2019, a period considered strong and healthy for real estate, our current inventory levels are still significantly lower.
- Fewer homes on the market = stable or rising prices.
Another key metric is months’ supply of inventory, which tells us how long it would take to sell all homes currently on the market without adding new ones. While this metric has ticked up due to higher interest rates slowing buyer demand, it’s still far below the 4-6 months’ supply typically seen in declining markets.
Post-Election Real Estate Trends
With Donald Trump back in the spotlight, there’s a lot of chatter about how his presidency might impact real estate. Here’s the big picture:
- Historically, 11 out of the last 9 election and post-election years have seen home values increase (yes, you read that right—historically, values go up).
- Presidents often apply indirect pressure to the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low, which helps stimulate the housing market.
During Trump’s previous term, we experienced a strong market, partly due to historically low interest rates. While today’s rates hover around 7%, the Fed has signaled plans to gradually decrease rates, which should reignite demand and support home values.
The Real Driver: Interest Rates!
The real driver of the real estate market isn’t the president—it’s interest rates! Here’s what history tells us:
- 2016: Rates dropped to ~3.5%, and home sales surged.
- 2019: Rates hit ~5%, and home sales slowed.
- 2020–2021: Rates fell again, and the market skyrocketed.
- 2023: Rates are higher (~6-7%), and demand has softened.
If you’re tracking the market, keep your eyes on interest rates—they dictate demand and influence home values more than anything else.
Advice for Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers:
If you don’t have to sell right now, consider holding off until February when buyer activity typically picks up. Use the holiday season to prep your home—make it shine for the spring market.
For Buyers:
This is an opportune time to get active. Many buyers leave the market during the holidays, so competition is low, and sellers may be more willing to negotiate.
- Look for motivated sellers.
- Take advantage of the current market and refinance later as rates drop
Final Thoughts
The real estate market remains steady despite challenges, and the post-election period could bring opportunities as policies and interest rates evolve. For personalized guidance, reach out to me or the True Local Team—we’re here to help you make informed decisions.
Enjoy the holiday season, and let’s gear up for an exciting year ahead!
- If you are thinking about buying or selling we would love to help!
- Visit us at TrueLocalRealty.com
- Or give us a call at 888-503-3117
We have Top Realtors in: Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, La Jolla, Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach, Cardiff, San Diego, Vista, San Marcos, Escondido and more.