November Market Update: Inventory is shrinking… What is that telling us? 

Inventory is shrinking and yes, you heard that right. As we head deeper into the fall season, the San Diego market is slowing earlier than usual, and the numbers make that very clear. In this month’s update, we’ll break down the latest stats, discuss where the market is heading, and share advice for buyers and sellers navigating these shifting conditions.

Market Snapshot: A Noticeable Slowdown on Both Sides

For the last 30 days, here’s what the San Diego housing market has looked like:

• 2,024 new listings hit the market
  (A healthy market would typically see around 3,500.)
• 988 homes expired or were withdrawn
  These properties did not sell. A trend we’ve consistently seen for 6-7 months.
• 1,509 homes went pending
  Lower-than-usual numbers, signaling softer buyer activity.
• 2,005 homes closed
  Again, below what we need for a strong, active market.

These numbers show one thing clearly: the market is slow. Inventory isn’t just low—more homes are coming off the market than coming on. And with buyers also moving cautiously, neither side is pushing the market in any direction.

Where We’re Headed Next

There are two likely paths as we move into late fall and winter:

Scenario 1: Buyer Activity Picks Up

If interest rates continue to ease, the economy shows signs of improvement, or consumer confidence rebounds, we could see:

• More buyers entering the market
• Increased competition
• Home prices trending upward

With inventory already tight, even a moderate bump in demand could be enough to accelerate appreciation.

Scenario 2: Buyer Activity Stays Low

If inventory keeps shrinking and but buyer demand doesn’t improve… we’ll likely see:

• Values holding steady
• Fewer price reductions
• A slow but balanced market

In this scenario, sellers aren’t desperate, and buyers aren’t aggressive so the market will simply keep chugging along at its current pace.

Pricing: The Data Tells an Interesting Story

Homes that sell are currently closing at 97.7% of their asking price.

This signals:

• A relatively healthy market
• Some room for negotiation
• Strong performance for well-presented homes

When you isolate homes under $5 million, that number gets even higher, almost 98.5% of asking price. Higher-end properties (above $4–5 million) are seeing larger negotiation gaps, which is very typical for that segment.

Even though homes are sitting longer, sellers are not panicking. Why?

1. Homeowners are more educated and understand real estate’s long-term value.
2. Many owners refinanced into 3% mortgages and have no urgency to sell.

With comfortable payments and long-term confidence, homeowners prefer to stay put rather than slash their price which is another reason we aren’t expecting any “fire sale” environment in San Diego.

The Buzz About 50-Year Mortgages: Should You Care?

There’s been plenty of media attention around the idea of a 50-year mortgage but the reality is, it’s not the game-changer some hoped for.

Here’s why:

• Interest is front-loaded. Extending a loan to 50 years means paying most of the interest in the first half of the loan.
• You barely pay down principal for decades.
• Banks benefit far more than homeowners.
• The payment difference isn’t significant enough to justify the massive jump in interest paid.

If you're comparing a 30-year loan to a potential 50-year option, the numbers simply don’t justify the hype. It makes headlines but not much real-world impact.

Seller Advice for November

We’re entering the seasonal slowdown, especially as Thanksgiving approaches. Historically:

• Buyer activity drops
• Showings dip
• Listings sit longer

If you don’t have to sell right now, consider waiting until:

January 15–21

That’s when momentum reliably returns and buyers re-enter the market with fresh motivation.

You can still sell during the holidays but if timing is on your side, waiting may yield stronger exposure and better offers.

Buyer Advice for November

Buyers, and especially investors should stay active.

December is historically one of the best months to secure deals because:

• Many buyers step away for the holidays
• Competition drops
• Motivated sellers remain
• Investors can capture strong margins by reselling in spring

Flippers and long-term investors consistently take advantage of this window. Primary buyers can benefit, too less pressure, more negotiation power, and opportunities that don’t exist during peak season.

Final Thoughts

The market is slower. Inventory is shrinking. But San Diego homeowners remain financially strong and confident, and buyers still have leverage in today's more balanced environment.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or strategizing for 2025, the True Local team is here to help you navigate every step.