San Diego Real Estate Outlook for 2026

As we kick off the new year, I’ve been getting a lot of the same question:
“What do you think will happen in 2026”

So here is my deep dive into what the analysts are saying, and what my boots on the ground experience is feeling.

Home Prices Aren’t Dropping, But Affordability Is Improving

In San Diego, we are not seeing home values come down. In fact, values increased last year (even though it was just slightly), while some other markets soften. What is changing is affordability, and it’s happening slowly and quietly.

Here’s why:

• Home values are staying relatively stable
• Incomes are rising
• Interest rates are trending downward

When you combine all of that, homes are gradually becoming more attainable, even if it doesn’t always feel that way day to day.

Looking Ahead: My 2026 Home Value Outlook

Historically, San Diego has outperformed the national average when it comes to appreciation. Recently, we’ve been about 1–3% higher than the national average, and that includes last year.

Most major analysts: Zillow, Redfin, and the National Association of Realtors are projecting a fairly average year ahead, around 1.5% appreciation.

I’m personally a bit more optimistic. I can confidently say we should see a 3-4% appreciation this year. 

Being in the trenches every day, I can feel the demand building. There are a lot of buyers sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right moment. Because of that, I’m projecting more activity and more volume this year than many forecasts suggest… about 10% more than 2025. 

What Could Shift the Market?

The biggest wildcard right now is political and economic uncertainty.

Whether it’s motivating people to act or causing hesitation, uncertainty is playing a major role in buyer and seller decisions. When we start to see more clarity and confidence politically, I truly believe we could see the market accelerate quickly if that happens. 

There are simply too many people waiting to get into San Diego real estate for appreciation to stay modest forever.

Final Thoughts

Even though headlines can be noisy, the fundamentals of our local market remain strong. We are a desirable area, with limited land, and great weather. That is a recipe for future appreciation!

 If you’ve been thinking about buying, selling, or just want to talk through scenarios, I’m always happy to help.

Even if it’s just brainstorming, I love these conversations.

Feel free to reach out to me or anyone on the True Local Realty team anytime.
Here’s to a great start to the year!